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CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Tadahito Iguchi is having a fine season, batting .291 with 9 home runs, 38 RBIs and 5 SB. Beware that a batting average correction could be coming. His weak contact rate of 78% and low batting eye of 0.34 are the warning signs. He is also running with less success than last season, when he was 15 for 20 in SB. This season he has been caught 3 times in 8 attempts.
Over the last three seasons, Paul Konerko has developed into one of the more reliable sluggers in baseball. It looks like he is on his way to a career year. The 21 home runs puts him on pace to equal the 41 and 40 he hit in the previous two seasons. But he could top those numbers as he generating more power. His G/F ratio has gone down steadily since 2004 from 1.00 to 0.71 and his 16 doubles are 5 more than he had in the first half of last year.
Jose Contreras keeps rolling along with a 9-0 record and a 3.33 ERA. Besides leaving New York, it looks like his success began when he stopped trying to blow away every hitter. His K/9 is down from a high in 2003 of 9.13 to its current 6.33. It’s the improvement in his BB/9 from a high in 2004 of 4.4 to this year’s 2.5 mark, along with his G/F ratio rising from a low of 1.07 to this year’s 1.31 mark, that is fueling his success.
Click to continue reading American League Fantasy Notes: A.L. Central
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BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Nick Markakis has been on a tear, going 20 for his last 46, raising his average from .227 to .270. While it will guarantee him playing time, don’t rush to pick him up. Only 3 of those 20 hits have been for extra-bases, 2 doubles and a triple. He is just 22 years old and though a nice prospect, his power is not major-league caliber yet. For now this makes him a singles hitter without much speed.
Is Corey Patterson for real? We have seen several periods where he looks like he is going to be a superstar, only to see him completely collapse. No one has ever questioned his speed. He is very fast and knows how to steal a base. He is generating less power than a few years ago. When he hit 24 home runs in 2004, he also had 33 doubles and 6 triples. This season his 9 home runs have been accompanied by just 9 doubles and 1 triple. In the past his downfall has been plate patience and making contact. For the month of May his batting eye was .50, way above his previous numbers. But since June 11, he has just 1 walk while striking out 12 times. In his previous four major league seasons his contact rate was between 73% and 77 %. For 2006, his contact rate is 82%. These gains might be real, as he is still making good contact, 84% rate, in that same June 11th to present period where his plate patience has eroded. If you are an owner of Patterson and need speed, stay with him. However if you are comfortable with your SB totals and don’t want to gamble that he is falling back into bad habits, now is the time to deal him.
In his Orioles debut of 4.1 innings, Russ Ortiz allowed 3 ER, 9 hits and 4 walks, while striking out just one hitter. Although Ortiz enjoyed his best seasons in Atlanta with Leo Mazzone as his pitching coach, the Mazzone magic will not work this time around. His command is beyond repair.
Click to continue reading American League Fantasy Notes: A.L. East
SEATTLE MARINERS
After writing in this column last week that Kenji Johjima’s power was limited, he goes off and hits four homers during the week, with two of them being in baseball’s toughest park on hitters, Petco Field. If anything, he has shown to be a streaky power hitter.
After a slow start, Chris Snelling is now hitting .271 in Triple-A. If Jeremy Reed continues to struggle, Snelling could see some time in center field in the second half of this season. He has been extremely injury prone, but could be a productive major-league hitter if given the opportunity.
A hot streak has seen Adrien Beltre’s average rise from the low .200’s to .258. Use that as an opportunity to trade him. His power is still below average for a cornerman and batting second in the order has limited his RBI chances.
Jarrod Washburn has the shaky skill set of a fly ball pitcher with low a K/9 rate. The only places where those skills can be effective long-term are in spacious stadiums such as his home field of Safeco Field. His home/road ERA split of 3.97/5.70 plays this out. If you are desperate, you can use him in home starts or pitcher-friendly road stadiums, but avoid him in hitter’s parks.
Click to continue reading American League Fantasy Notes: A.L. West
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
The White Sox play in National League stadiums for the balance of this week. Jim Thome should get a start in Pittsburgh and in Wrigley Field at first base. Don’t look for any more than that because Paul Konerko is the one who has to go to the bench.
Scott Podsednik owners may have to live with a batting average in the .250 to .260 area. His low contact rate of 82% is preventing him from fully taking advantage of his speed to beat out infield ground balls. Another problem is that when he hit .290 last year, his G/F ratio was a career high 2.08, this year it is 1.59, which is more in-line with his career marks.
Brian Anderson is back from his 5-game suspension and will continue to share time with Rob Mackowiak in centerfield.
Click to continue reading American League Fantasy Notes: A.L. Central
NEW YORK YANKEES
Three of the older Yankee hitters, Jorge Posada, Jason Giambi and Bernie Williams are having productive seasons.
Posada turns 35 in August and is in his tenth season as a major league catcher. One would expect the wear and tear of playing such a demanding position to catch up with him, but he is hitting .294 with 10 home runs and 42 RBIs. His power has declined since his prime days, but he is making up for it with an improved batting eye and a higher contact rate. Another reason that he is a good bet to keep it up is that his first and second half season splits in 2004 and 2005 did show any major differences.
Giambi is now 35 year old and has recovered nicely from the controversy of early last year to hit 20 home runs, with 56 RBIs so far this season. These numbers are not so far off from his big years from 1999 to 2003. The only real difference is that a lower contact rate has lowered his batting average from the .300’s to a still very acceptable .268. With all his other underlying skills still intact, look for his big year to continue.
Williams’, who turns 38 years old in September, mini-resurgence to a .290 batting average has been the product of an increased contact rate. The problem is that the combination of a decrease in power skills and batting eye means he is not hitting the ball that hard. Once some of those balls stop finding holes, his batting average should decline.
Click to continue reading American League Fantasy Notes: A.L. East
Dealing To The Dish: American League Weekend Edition 6.24-6.25
Posted by Dennis Velasco Categories: Editorial, Fantasy, MLB,
The following games take place on American League territory. Saturday and Sunday’s probable starters are listed:
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox
SAT: B. Myers (5-3, 3.77) vs. C. Schilling (9-2, 3.55)
SUN: C. Lidle (4-6, 5.00) vs. T. Wakefield (5-8, 3.82)
We know Myers can beat his wife, but can he beat the Red Sox and Curt Schilling? And despite pitching well, Wakefield just isn’t getting the offensive support to win more games.
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox
SAT: T. Buchholz (4-6, 5.82) vs. J. Garland (6-3, 5.58)
SUN: R. Oswalt (6-3, 3.32) vs. J. Vázquez (8-4, 4.43)
The Astros lost the first game of the series in this rematch of last season’s World Series participants. Sunday’s night game should be fun to watch with Roy Oswalt and Javier Vazquez on the hill.
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians
SAT: B. Arroyo (9-3, 2.47) vs. P. Byrd (5-5, 4.78)
SUN: E. Ramírez (2-6, 3.69) vs. J. Sowers (0-0, 0.00)
Boy, couldn’t the Red Sox use Bronson Arroyo right now. Especially considering how well he’s doing in the Queen City. Watch rookie Jeremy Sowers on Sunday. He could really be special.
Click to continue reading Dealing To The Dish: American League Weekend Edition 6.24-6.25
TEXAS RANGERS
Kameron Loe was placed on the DL with a sore right elbow. Robinson Tejada is expected to take his place in the starting rotation. This will be Tejada’s second tour with the big league club this season. In his first go around, he started 4 games and had an ugly 7.71 ERA and 0.86 K/BB ratio. As an extreme flyball pitcher, he is miscast as a starter in Texas and should be avoided.
Hank Blalock has sacrificed power for better contact and plate patience. This has led to a higher batting average with less home runs. Two factors working in favor of this change in approach are that he plays half his games in a high scoring stadium and he bats in a powerful line-up. The upshot of being on base more often is that he is scoring more runs and it does not seem to be hurting his RBI production. The only category negatively affected is home runs.
Gary Matthews Jr. is on a tear, raising his batting average to .341. Considering that he is 31 years of age and the highest batting average he has had in a season is .276, fantasy owners may want to try and sell high.
Click to continue reading American League Fantasy Notes: A.L. West
Dealing To The Dish: National League 6.23.06
Posted by Dennis Velasco Categories: Editorial, Fantasy, MLB, Rumors,
Interleague games played on National League grounds:
Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies
J. Koronka (5-4, 5.00) vs. J. Francis (5-6, 4.13)
- This could be a slugfest, folks. Coors Field has a reputation, well-earned by the way, for being a notorious hitter’s park, what with the thin air and all. However, this season, not as much as previous years. Regardless, tonight we have two very good offenses that could potentially have the final score looking like a football game was played, instead of a hardball game. BUT, surprisingly, Jeff Francis, former Minor League Player of the Year and most pitied high-caliber pitcher for being taken by the Rockies, pitches better at Coors. It’s wierd. Francis on the road - 4.59 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and .225 BAA. Francis at home - 3.50 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .200 BAA. Hmm… so maybe it’ll end up that Francis only gives up a field goal, while the Rockies score a touchdown or two.
Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks
E. Santana (7-3, 4.10) vs. E. Gonzalez (2-0, 3.67)
- The Angels are looking to upgrade their offense and it seems that Ervin Santana is the main bait to get that going. It’s unfortunate for Santana, a young pitcher with plus stuff, but it could be even more unfortunate for the Angels considering Santana’s recent numbers. For the month of June, Santana is 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and .164 BAA. Who does Ervin think he is - Johan?!?!?
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres
G. Meche (7-4, 4.10) vs. J. Peavy (4-8, 4.81)
- The K/9 rate is there. So is the K/BB rate. As well as the WHIP and BAA, for the most part. So, what’s up with Jake Peavy’s ugly looking record and ERA? It’s tough to say, but he’ll need to pitch well tonight against a Mariners team that has won eight of nine interleague games this season. Meanwhile, Gil Meche is pretty much having the month you’d expect from Peavy - 3-0, 1.71 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and .213 BAA.
Click to continue reading Dealing To The Dish: National League 6.23.06
Yesterday was the first day of Summer. Two days ago the NBA Season came to an end with the Miami Heat’s first title, ending a flat out fantastic NBA Playoffs. Three days ago the NHL Season came to an end as the Carolina Hurricanes won their first Stanley Cup title behind the heroics of a rookie goalie.
So, as the seasons and sports officially transition, what are sports geeks to look forward to during the summer of 2006? Here is my Top 11{ref1} list for what to expect during upcoming 3 months.
11. MLB All Star Game and Home Run Derby: There is usually at least one memorable moment from the All Star Game and Home Run Derby. In Pittsburgh this year.
10. MLB record watch: Can Barry Bonds catch the Babe? Will Ichiro break more records. Someone will set a record, surely.
9. Wimbledon: I don’t even know who the tennis stars are these days, but I’m looking forward to the traditional 6:00 am breakfast for Wimbledon.
8. NFL Kickoff Weekend: The return of professional football will signal the next season change.
7. Return of NCAA Football and the Longhorns defending their first title in years: We’ll find out a lot about this team on September 9th when they host Ohio State.
6. The British Open: Can Phil make up for his debacle at the US Open?
5. The NBA Draft: Who will draft the Stache? Who will draft the next Sam Bowie?
4. Fantasy Football Season: Ah, the best time of the year. Productivity goes down and trash talking goes up. Everyone thinks that they can be the next best Billy Beanesque type General Manager.
3. World Cup Quarterfinals: The action really heats up and the top teams have to be on their game to move on.
2. World Cup Semifinals: Can the United States advance further than they ever have before? They have yet to reach the final 4, this might be the year.
1. World Cup Finals: Seriously, it doesn’t even matter who is playing. This is the number one event of all of 2006.
It’s gonna be a hot summer, enjoy!
DETROIT TIGERS
Zach Miner continues his hold on the number five starting spot, with a 3-1 record and a 2.08 ERA. However, with just 13 K’s in 26 innings and a G/F ratio hovering around 1.0, there could be some bumps in the road.
Carlos Guillen looks like he has recovered from the knee injury that plagued his 2005 season. The numbers he is putting up is consistent with his breakout 2004 season. He provides nice power for a middle infielder. The eight stolen bases look good until you see that he has been caught 5 times. If that continues, the green light will not be given often.
The difference in Kenny Rogers home ERA of 1.76 versus his road ERA of 4.17 can be explained by just 1 home run allowed at home against 11 on the road. While he is obviously a must start at home, this does not mean you need to bench him on the road. Those with the roster flexibility may want to consider sitting him in road starts in extremely hitter friendly stadiums such as Texas.
Click to continue reading American League Fantasy Notes: A.L. Central
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