Don’t get me wrong, I absolutely love Albert Pujols’ game and character.  I think if Barry Bonds wasn’t around, Pujols would have three or four MVP’s and not just the one he received last season.  We all know the improvments he’s made over the past several seasons in every aspect regarding his hitting and even his defense… can you imagine having someone who rakes at the rate he does AND plays Gold Glove caliber defense?  The former is why I’m absolutely ecstatic that I have him on most of my fantasy baseball teams!

In any case, I’m lauding Pujols a lot here, but I just don’t think he’ll break the single season homerun record of 73 set by the aforementioned Bonds.

As much as I know he has the protection behind him in Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds primarily, forcing pitchers to actually deal to Pujols, I’m thinking there’s going to be a lot of junk pitches low and away, effectively turning into intentional “unintentional” walks as the season goes along.  Besides, Rolen and Edmonds haven’t exactly been the paragons of health lately.  In any case, if there’s no one on base, Pujols will definitely be getting nothing to hit squarely.  Granted Pujols’ great eye and mastery of the box will enable him to at least get singles or doubles, even off of these weak pitches, but they’ll be contained in the park.  And with pitchers not wanting to be the one to serve the record dinger, it’s going to get harder for Pujols should he near the magic number 73. 

I can picture managers in dugouts now thinking - Induce the ground ball, induce the ground ball, induce the groundball…

It’s sort of like when Michael Jordan played.  A phrase was born from his dominance on the basketball court and that was - “You can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him.”  With Pujols, you know he’s going to drive the ball, and as an opponent, you just hope it stays in the park.

Plus, add the fact of the type of pressure there is in trying to accomplish a record like this.  Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa at least had each other in their quest to beat Roger Maris’ 61 homers.  Bonds had his own stubborn self and ego (and some MIGHT say chemical enhancements, but it’s only alleged) in his mission to break McGwire’s record.  How would Pujols do with all the media attention he would get?  He’s already arguably the best player in the league and he has been clutch in the postseason as displayed when he hit a homer over Lidge in last season’s NL playoffs.  However, this would be a whole new beast.

I’m not saying that Pujols can’t focus.  I mean, he as much as anyone in the game can get locked in.  But even the media circus will have to affect Pujols.  Because unlike the other record breakers, Pujols would essentially be going this alone.  Yes, the fans will back him and there isn’t anyone better that you would want to break the record besides Maris coming back from the grave to claim what is “rightly” his.

However, Pujols won’t have a Sosa or McGwire to deflect media attention.  And he won’t have the juice or ego to drive him like Bonds.  He would just be by himself under a huge spotlight bigger than anything he’s ever experienced, World Series included. I think he’ll come close, but like previous NL MVP races, he’ll fall just short of Bonds.  And you know what?  Nothing pains me more to say.

Damn, I hope I’m wrong on this one.