Alright, here we go!  Week 1 in the NFL kicks off tonight as does our data gathering for the rest of the season.  I am excited as I know you are, but let’s take a deep breath, curb our enthusiasm and get down to business.  I apply a guideline of not going over 3-stars in Week 1. (Click Here to Learn About Stars.)  It is a guideline, driven by the belief that this is the least informed we will be all season long, so any extreme confidence you have in a game is based on speculation not facts.  There are many unknowns at this point, so let’s allow things to play out so we can make better decisions as the season
progresses.  Its not where you start, its where you finish.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants
Line: NYG -4.5
A lot of questions about both teams, though the questions for the Redskins are harder to answer.  Believing that defenses are ahead of offenses at this point, and knowing the ‘Skins are learning a new system it is hard to not pick the Giants.
Pick: Giants

Seattle Seahawks @ Buffalo Bills
Line: BUF -1
I have never been a believer in the Seahawks and I do believe that Buffalo is not bad.  On some books this game opened the other way with the Bills catching 1-point.  I don’t have a lot of confidence in either direction, but if forced to pick I will take the Bills.
Pick: Bills

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: NO -3
These two teams will be neck and neck all year long.  The Saints are coming off of a disappointing year, and the Bucs are still being questioned for the way they ended last season.  I am a huge Jeff Garcia fan, the dude just wins.  I believe there are arguments to be made for both teams in this game, but the one that sways me is New Orleans at home.  So I will give the points and take the Saints.
Pick: Saints

Teams: Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: PIT -6
This is a must win for the Steelers.  Sounds strange to say about any Week 1 game but with the Steelers faced with the toughest schedule in the NFL they are going to need to win every game where they are ‘supposedly’ the better team.  I am not convinced that Pittsburgh is that much better than Houston.  A touchdown should be doable, but I am still going to take
the points and the Texans.
Pick: Texans

Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: ATL +3
What a fiasco the Lions are!  Even with all the drama around Tatum Bell stealing Rudi Johnson’s luggage, and all the questions about just what sort of team the Lions may be this year, I can’t bring myself to take the Falcons.  I am choosing the Lions because they should win.  Just typing that made me shudder.
Pick: Lions

St. Louis Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: PHI -7.5
I have very high expectations of the Eagles this year.  I also expect the Rams to bounce back from a horribly unlucky year to be better than last season, but the Eagles should win this game going away.
Pick: Eagles

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Line: TEN +3
As long as no one else gets shot on the Jaguars they should win this divisional game.  In order to catch the Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville must take care of business every week.  The Jaguars are better than the Titans, though the game will be hard-fought.
Pick: Jaguars

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Line: MIA +3
All the Jet fans are scared of Chad Pennington.  What a bunch of paranoid individuals!  The Jets are a significantly better football team than the Dolphins, in every aspect of the game.  I don’t believe in guarantees but this is as close to a sure win as you will get for the Jets and to win by 3 is not asking a lot.
Pick: Jets

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: BAL +1
The Ravens are starting rookie QB Joe Flacco.  Not because Flacco necessarily won the position, but because he is the last man standing.  With all the Bengals issues, at least they can be thankful they aren’t the Ravens.
Pick: Bengals

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots
Line: NE -16.5
Last year the Patriots covered every big line early and should do the same with this opening game stinker.  People may point to Tom Brady not playing in the preseason, and they may point to the Pats going 0-4, but come on! Its the Patriots and the Chiefs!!  I can’t find any satisfactory reason to not take the Patriots.
Pick: Patriots

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: SF +3
JT O’Sullivan sounds like an Irish pub and Kurt Warner sounds old.  The Cardinals offense will be able to put up points and the their defense will keep the 49ers new offense down.
Pick: Cardinals

Carolina Panthers @ San Diego Chargers
Line: SD -9.5
I love the Panthers in this game.  Carolina is an under-the-radar team and the Chargers are smack dab in the middle of the radar.  This line is way too high!
Pick: Panthers

Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns
Line: CLE +5.5
This is my favorite matchup of the weekend.  The line has moved a lot and when it was closer to 7 I was leaning towards the Browns.  At 5.5, I give a nod to the Cowboys.
Pick: Cowboys

Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: IND -10
The only reason to take the Bears is, oh wait, there is no reason to take the Bears.
Pick: Colts

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Line: GB -3
Everyone thinks the Packers are going to struggle, well they aren’t.  This game will set the tone in the NFC North.  The betting public does not think the Packers are going to be very good, and I believe their reasoning for that is strictly an emotional response to Brett Favre not being there anymore.  Emotions can NOT be part of your decision making.
Pick: Packers

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders
Line: OAK +3
The Broncos are supposed to be the dark-horse in the AFC West.  The Raiders may be a little better, but a little better than sucking is not very good.
Pick: Broncos