LOS ANGELES ANGELS

Kendry Morales is back with the team.  He had a fine season in Triple-A with 12 home runs, 52 RBIs, and a .320 batting average in 256 AB.  The same cannot be said for the time spent in the major leagues this year.  In 186 AB, he is hitting a low .237, while not displaying much power.  He remains a prospect, but with the Angels still in the playoff hunt, he will not see much playing time.

Jered Weaver continues his outstanding rookie campaign with a record of 11-2 and a 2.30 ERA.  With a .62 G/F ratio, the right-hander is an extreme fly ball pitcher.  Pitching in Angel Stadium is a good fit for that skill set, as it reduces left-handed batting power by 7%.  His home/road ERA split of 1.38/3.05 plays this out.  There are three American League stadiums that significantly increase left-handed batting power.  They are Ameriquest Field (37%), U.S. Cellular Field (31%), and Safeco Field (19%).  Of the three, Weaver has only pitched in Safeco Field.  In his first outing there, he allowed 1 ER and no home runs in 7 innings.  His second Safeco Field outing is a different story.  In that game, he surrendered 4 home runs in 4.2 innings.  It will be interesting to see how he fares in the other two left-handed batting, homer-happy parks.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

The Big Hurt is back!  Frank Thomas hit a home run in six consecutive games.  For the season, he has 36 home runs and 98 RBIs in just 418 AB.  His G/L/F percentage splits of 24/19/57 show that a majority of balls that he puts in play are fly balls.  With just 9 doubles, the fly balls are either going over the fence or falling into outfielder’s gloves.  A strong batting eye of 1.03 and decent contact rate of 83% keep his batting average at a respectable .280.  At age 38, Thomas retains enough strength and skill to be a valuable fantasy asset.

Eric Chavez should get a pass on his poor 2006 season due to injuries.  But it is interesting to note that his power has declined 5 straight seasons at a time that it should be peaking. 

Nick Swisher is enjoying a power breakout season with 31 home runs and 95 RBIs.  The .64 batting eye is misleading because with his 15% BB rate, he works counts well.  His low contact rate of 73% drags his batting eye down and keeps his average in the .250s area.  He will be 26 next year, an age where power begins its peak period, so he is an excellent keeper candidate.

SEATTLE MARINERS

Adrian Beltre’s 2005 season of 19 home runs and this season’s 18 home runs are more representative of his future than the 48 home runs that he socked in 2004.  His fly ball rate has never been high enough to support 45+ home runs.  To indicate what a fluke the 2004 season was his fly ball rate is slightly higher this year, 41.6% vs. 40.4%, than his monster 2004 season.

Even though CT scans on Rafael Soriano have come back normal, he will not pitch again this season.  He was hit in the head by a line drive on August 29th.  Soriano bounced back from Tommy John surgery to produce a solid 2006 season with a K/9 of 9.75, BB/9 3.15 and an ERA of 2.25.  Those are closer-worthy skills, but with a 54.3% fly ball rate, Safeco Field, which increases left-handed batting power by 19%, may not be the best place for him.

The Mariners intend on keeping Felix Hernandez’s innings total under 200 for the season.  He will get two more starts, but will be skipped twice.  The first time he will be skipped is today.  Francisco Cruceta will take his place.  Cruceta started 28 games in Triple-A this year and had an impressive K/9 of 10.4.  While he got Triple-A hitters to swing and miss often, he also walked them at a high clip, 4.3 BB/9 and allowed a very high 25 home runs.  The strikeout skills make him an intriguing prospect, but the control and gopheritis issues mean you should stay away for now.

TEXAS RANGERS

Free agent-to-be, Hank Blalock could be playing out the string as a member of the Rangers.  A lingering sore shoulder may be the cause of his lower than normal power numbers of 15 home runs and 73 RBIs.  He made an early season attempt to improve his batting eye and contact rate and the results were encouraging, 12 home runs and a .287 average in the first-half.  In the second-half of the season, he has completely abandoned the disciplined plate approach, .29 batting eye, with an actual major decrease in power, 3 home runs.  He will get a shot with another team, but it will not be in a stadium as power friendly to left-handed hitters as Ameriquest Field.

Mark Teixeira could be undervalued going into 2007.  In the first-half of the season, his home run totals were low, just 9, but he did hit 31 doubles.  In the second-half of the season, he has revved up the power with 18 home runs.  Next year, he will be 27 years old, an age where power is peaking.  He also has improved his batting eye, .72 this year vs. .58 last year and his 2006 fly ball rate is a career high 41%.  The low first-half home runs will make his overall numbers look disappointing compared to 2005, but next year he could be ready to put up career best numbers.