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Monday September 4, 2006 7:25 pm
American League Fantasy Notes: A.L. East
BOSTON RED SOX
Relief is coming for the run-starved Red Sox. Wily Mo Pena and Alex Gonzalez started on Sunday. Trot Nixon and Jason Varitek have been activated and should return to the lineup today. There is also some talk that Manny Ramirez will start today. It sounds like David Ortiz is at least a few days away from coming back.
Kyle Snyder now has a regular spot in the rotation. After years of inconsistency, the 7th overall pick in the 1999 draft is showing some nice skills growth. With an 8.3 K/9 and a 2.9 BB/9, his ERA should be better than his current 5.94 mark. With the heavy lumber returning to the lineup and a few breaks, Snyder could be a good play in AL-only leagues.
Jonathan Papelbon is having an MRI on his right shoulder today. If all goes well he could be back in 5 to 7 days. With the team out of the playoff hunt, the Red Sox will probably limit his workload for the rest of the season. In the interim, Keith Foulke and Mike Timlin are the favorites for save chances. Injuries and age have taken a toll on Foulk’s skills. His K/9 is in a four-year downfall to a now barely acceptable 6.2 and he has gone from merely a fly ball pitcher to the most extreme possible. This has led to a gopheritis problem, as he has allowed 9 home runs in just 39.1 innings in 2006. The 40-year old Timlin has seen his K/9 drop to a below average 4.15, which would be fine if he were still a groundball pitcher. However his G/F ratio is at a career low .94. Neither is a good option to close for the Red Sox or for a fantasy team.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Corey Patterson is out until at least Friday with a shoulder sprain. David Newhan has been getting the starts in centerfield.
Jeff Fiorentino was recalled from Double-A and he could get some starts in leftfield. He was rushed up last year from Single-A when the Orioles were hit with a rash of outfield injuries and was overmatched with 10 strikeouts in 47 plate appearances. This year he struggled with hamstring and ankle injuries before coming on with a .340 batting average over the last two months.
Miguel Tejada has now played in 1,054 consecutive games. Not resting does not seem to be taking a toll on his numbers, as he is hitting .336, with 22 home runs and 90 RBIs. Tejada’s high batting average is supported by a strong 88% contact rate and some respectable speed. At some point you have to be wary that a consecutive game streak will eat into offensive numbers, but for the 30-year old Tejada, that is probably a few years away.
NEW YORK YANKEES
With a comfortable lead, the Yankees will probably limit Mariano Rivera’s workload this rest of the way. He has been having problems with a sore elbow. Kyle Farnsworth will get some save opportunities. He has experience in that role, successfully closing games for the Braves in 2004, and with a K/9 of 10.0, he has the stuff to dominate hitters. But his high BB/9 of 4.4 has gotten him in trouble in the set-up role.
Mike Mussina will be activated from the DL in time for a Tuesday start against the Royals. If you own him, make sure to get him active.
Hideki Matsui is expected to return to the Yankees on September 12th. Although he will probably DH at first, eventually Melky Cabrera will lose playing time. For Gary Sheffield, it is looking like a mid-September return at the earliest.
TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS
Delmon Young is off to a hot start with 10 hits in his first 27 AB. Of those 10 hits, 2 were doubles and 2 were home runs. At 6’3 and 205 lbs., Young certainly has the size to be a power hitter, but remember he is just 20 years old and had only 8 home runs in Triple-A this season. Don’t expect the power to last. He will also need to exercise some plate patience against major league pitching. In 357 Triple-A plate appearances, he drew only 15 walks, so he will most likely continue hacking away with the Rays. He is a better bet for some steals, as he went 22 for 26 in the minors.
Casey Fossum is likely out for the season with a left shoulder injury. Brian Stokes and J.P Howell figure to battle for the opening spot in the rotation. At 27 years of age, Stokes is past the prospect stage and his Triple-A numbers of a 4.11 ERA, 6.9 K/9, and a 3.3 BB/9 are underwhelming. After two disaster starts in early August, Howell has looked better in his last two starts. Howell is an extreme groundball pitcher with some strikeout potential. He has a shot to be a quality starting pitcher in the future, but as he struggles with his control, expect some inconsistency in the short-term.
Ty Wigginton is back from his broken hand injury and should see regular playing time shuttling between first base, second base and right field. He has shown some nice growth in power this year by opening up his swing and hitting more fly balls. Fantasy teams in need of a power boost down the stretch should not hesitate to pick him up. With Wigginton back, plus Greg Norton and Kevin Witt being in the picture, Travis Lee is the odd man out at first base. He is not worth owning in any format.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Adam Lind has been brought up for a September audition. He tore up Double-A pitching with a .310 batting average, 19 home runs, and 71 RBIs. Then he was equally impressive in his next stop in Triple-A where he hit .394 in 109 AB. His poor .29 batting eye and 75% contact rate in Double-A will translate into many major league strikeouts. He probably needs a year of Triple-A seasoning to work on his plate patience.
A.J. Burnett’s underlying stats of a 7.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 1.74 G/F ratio say that he should have a better ERA than his current 4.31. He makes a good play for the last month of the year.
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