BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Kris Benson was placed on the DL, retroactive to July 26th.  He will miss at least one more start.  Southpaw, Bruce Chen takes his place in the rotation.  Chen has been awful this season, posting an ugly 6.97 ERA and allowing 24 home runs in just 82.2 innings.  His G/F ratio of .74 is too high, especially pitching half his games in Camden Yards, which increases right-handed batting power by 10%.  A K/9 of 8.16 and BB/9 of 1.88 in his last 14.1 innings offer some hope, but not enough to trust him on your fantasy team.

In his fourth Triple-A start, Daniel Cabrera stuck out 8 batters, while pitching six scoreless innings.  He should be back in the rotation soon.  Cabrera’s downfall with the Orioles was a BB/9 of 7.9.  In 24.1 minor league innings his BB/9 was 3.32, which is too high considering the competition he was facing.  Although he has talent, avoid him until he shows signs that he can harness his control.

There are some reports that Kevin Millar playing time is likely to decrease.  Millar’s power is in a four-year declining trend and at 34 years old, it would seem to be age related.  His contact rate and batting eye have remained stable, which leads to the conclusion that he is just not hitting the ball as hard as he did in his prime.  This has also lead to a sharp decline in his batting average.  He is no longer an option in mixed leagues.

BOSTON RED SOX

Jason Varitek underwent arthroscopic surgery for a cartilage tear in his left knee and is expected to be out until at least the beginning of September.  When he comes back, he cannot be counted on to be the full-time catcher.

The Red Sox picked up Javy Lopez to fill the catching void.  Lopez’s declining power was discussed in last week’s column.  The difference between Fenway Park and Camden Yards for right-handed batting power is not enough to make an impact on his numbers.

Catcher Doug Mirabelli could also pick up some extra AB provided the left ankle injury sustained on Friday doesn’t force him to go on the DL.  Mirabelli’s power has declined since he smacked 9 home runs in just 160 AB in 2004.  At 35 years of age, don’t expect a rebound.  He is a better hitter than his current .184 average indicates, but a contact rate of 68% limits that upside.

Curt Schilling continues his great comeback from an injury-plagued 2005 season.  The 14 wins ties him for the major league lead.  His K/9 of 8.0 is solid but is 2 to 3 K’s per nine innings off of vintage Schilling.  In his older age, he has also become more of a fly ball pitcher with a G/F of .85, lower than his prime G/F’s in the 1.10 to 1.20 range.  What he has not lost is his impeccable control.  A 2006 BB/9 of 1.1 is about as good as it gets for starting pitchers.  His 3.78 ERA shows that he is not the dominant pitcher he once was, but he is still plenty good.  With his skills and pitching for such a good offensive team, a 20-win season is easily within reach.

NEW YORK YANKEES

Right-handed swinging, Craig Wilson has taken over Andy Phillips’ role as Jason Giambi’s first base replacement.  He has started in four out of five games since joining the Yankees, although only one was against a right-handed pitcher.  His right/left batting average split in 2005 was .257/.283 and this year it has been .244/.313.  He obviously hits left-handed pitching better, but with 8 home runs this year against right-handers, he is not exactly useless against them.  Wilson’s low contact rate of 66% and poor batting eye of .26 means his .272 batting average is due for a downward correction.  However, he is a strong power hitter and at age 29, is in his peak years.  Moving from PNC Field, which suppresses right-handed batting power by 21% to neutral Yankee Stadium should also give his power numbers a boost.  He makes a nice pickup for AL-only league players in need of power, just be aware that he will be a drag on your team batting average. 

Robinson Cano is finally playing in minor-league rehab games and should return to the Yankees early this week.  Cano’s excellent 90% contact rate is in-line with previous years and has helped him to a .325 batting average.  Expect that average to come down as his batting eye of .39 is poor and he hasn’t hit for power or shown much speed this season.  There is also the risk that he may need time to regain his stroke after sitting out for over a month.

After an examination on his injured wrist last Thursday, Hideki Matsui was not cleared to begin batting practice.  This setback should keep him out until at least the beginning of September.  That will give Melky Cabrera another month of regular playing time.

Corey Lidle’s acquisition pushes Sidney Ponson to the bullpen and off of the fantasy radar.

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS

Rocco Baldelli has shown himself to be injury prone and overrated.  His low batting eye of .23 and below-average contact rate of 81% point to a .260 to .270 hitter, not his current .285.  The 16 home runs that he hit at age 22 in 2004 was impressive, but a rising G/F ratio to this year’s 1.73 has stunted his power growth.  The speed is still there, but nagging injuries have had him only attempt 3 steals this year. 

Scott Kazmir had another start pushed back, this time from Tuesday to Friday.  There has not been any negative fresh news on his shoulder.  Maybe the team is being cautious with their stud pitcher.  With nothing to gain by rushing him back, it seems to be the prudent move.

Jae Seo has regressed even more since being acquired from the Dodgers in June.  His K/9 has dropped from 6.58 in LA to 3.14 with Tampa Bay, while his BB/9 has up-ticked slightly from 3.35 to 3.76.  What is even scarier is his problem with the long ball.  He allowed 14 home runs in 67 innings with a G/F ratio of 1.06 with the Dodgers.  Since joining the Rays, he has allowed 8 home runs in 43 innings but his G/F ratio has decreased to .72.  Either he was unlucky with the Dodgers or lucky with Tampa Bay.  Based on his other underlying stats, the latter seems to be the better bet.  Stay as far away as possible from him.

Ben Zobrist is the new starting shortstop.  He lacks power but makes good contact and has a disciplined batting eye, so there is potential for a decent batting average.  Despite having 13 steals between Triple-A and Double-A this season, don’t expect him to be a speed source.  Double-A catchers caught him stealing 5 times. 

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Ryan Roberts was called up from the minors and has had a couple of starts at second base.  His 77% Triple-A contact rate will translate into a low major-league batting average and the 3 caught steals in 8 attempts will negate him as a speed source.  There is no fantasy value here.

Greg Zaun has been seeing a fair amount of playing time behind the plate lately.  He has exhibited some nice pop in his bat, with 7 home runs and 12 doubles in 186 AB.  A strong batting eye of 1.07 and a decent contact rate of 84% support his .267 batting average.  He is worth using in AL-only leagues.