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Monday July 31, 2006 9:52 am
American League Fantasy Notes: A.L. East
NEW YORK YANKEES
The Yankees pulled off a blockbuster trade acquiring right-fielder Bobby Abreu and starting pitcher Corey Lidle for four minor leaguers. Abreu’s presence will put an end to the right-field platoon of Bernie Williams and Aaron Guiel.
Abreu’s power is down from the previous two seasons and moving to Yankee Stadium will not help, as Citizens Bank Park is much better for lefty swinging power. He is still stealing bases, going 20 for 24 in that department. His contact rate of 75% is down from his usual 77% to 80%, but he making up for it with a higher than usual batting eye of 1.09, so there is some upside to his .277 batting average. He will see an increase in RBI opportunities.
Lidle is posting a career high K/9 of 7.04 this season and an acceptable 2.8 BB/9. His high 4.74 ERA is mainly the product of 19 home runs, which easily puts him on pace for a career high. With a 1.57 G/F ratio, the home runs will probably slow down and moving from Citizens Bank Park to Yankee Stadium will help. Pitching for a better team, Lidle could be a cheap source for some wins without doing too much damage to your ERA or WHIP.
Despite a lack of power, Melky Cabrera is proving to be a useful fantasy outfielder with a .278 batting average and 8 steals in 10 attempts. With a strong contact rate of 90% and batting eye of 1.12 there is some potential batting average upside. The 13 doubles and 2 triples hint at some power potential, but with a G/F ratio of 1.72 it won’t happen this year.
Andy Phillips is having a rough month of July batting .165, bringing his average down from .290 to .239. Phillips’ poor plate patience, .24 batting eye, and contact rate of 79% means that his average will likely stay in this area. With Abreu on board, Jason Giambi will DH less, with Bernie Williams and Aaron Guiel picking up AB there, severely cutting into Phillips playing time. He should not be owned in any format.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
At 35 years of age, Javy Lopez is on the downside of his career. His power has regressed each season since he smacked 43 home runs in 2003. The home run total that season was an anomoly for the latter part of his career, as he posted by far the lowest G/F, 1.04, of his career and he had 14 less doubles than home runs. Over the next few years, his G/F ratio returned to its normal range in the 1.30 to 1.40 area and his doubles outpaced his home runs. With his G/F ratio, contact rate and batting eye all remaining constant, it seems like he is just progressively losing strength each year. Expect the power decline to continue.
Jay Gibbons was activated from the DL and was the DH in his first two games back. In those two games he went 5 for 8, with a home run, a double and three walks. It looks like his knee is not bothering him.
Kris Benson missed his turn in the rotation on Sunday due to tendonitis in his elbow. He will attempt to throw in a few days to see if the injury will cause him to miss more time. No loss for fantasy leaguers, as his pedestrian K/9 of 4.2, BB/9 of 3.1 and G/F ratio of 1.19 make him nothing more than a back of the rotation roster filler. His 4.71 ERA bears this out.
BOSTON RED SOX
Tim Wakefield is not even close to throwing. It looks like the injured ribcage will keep him out to mid August. David Wells will come off the DL on Monday to start against the Indians. To get ready for this, he only had a 5 inning simulated game outing. It is wise not to activate him for that game in any format because he did not even have a minor-league rehab start. If Wells can stay healthy, then Kason Gabbard will stay in the minors.
After 6 consecutive solid outings, Jon Lester has had two bad ones, allowing 10 ER in 13.1 innings. Despite a 5-1 record and 3.49 ERA, Lester should be considered a risky play for the balance of the season. In his last 6 starts his K/9 is a subpar 4.84 and his BB/9 is too high at 4.07.
Trot Nixon is having a horrible July, batting .187, with just 1 home run and 5 RBIs. His power has been in a steady decline since the 2001 to 2003 time period when he averaged 26 home runs and 90 RBIs. Whether by a conscience effort or because of eroding skills, Nixon seems to have changed his approach to hitting. His contact rate and batting eye have both increased at the expense of his power skills. Despite the recent slump, the .294 batting average in 2006 is supported by his underlying skills, but unfortunately so is the paltry 7 home runs.
TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS
Starting third baseman, Ty Wiggington is out for 4 to 6 weeks with a fractured bone in his left hand. If B.J. Upton does not get called up to become the starting third baseman it will probably be because of comments he made to USA Today criticizing the organization. If the team decides to punish Upton, they will go with the lame trio of Russell Branyon, Greg Norton and Tomas Perez at third base. AL-only leaguers desperate for power can use Branyon and Norton, just be aware that your team batting average will take a hit. Perez started two games over the weekend and went 8-9, with 4 doubles. However, he has no speed or power, a subpar batting eye and poor contact skills. He should never go near a fantasy roster.
Scott Kazmir will go on the DL, retroactive to July 23, with inflammation in his left shoulder. The Rays think he will miss one more start and be ready to go on August 8th. But with the team going nowhere they will be very careful with their prize lefthander.
JP Howell, the left-hander acquired from the Royals for Joey Gathright, has pitched very well since joining the Rays Triple-A club. In seven starts, he is 3-2, with a 2.11 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and a 2.11 BB/9. He has shown some potential to be a groundball/strikeout pitcher and should get a shot with the big league club soon.
Manger Joe Madden indicated that Seth McClung will be closing games for the Rays at some point this season. McClung has failed as a starter mainly due to control problems. No pitcher is going to have success with his BB/9’s of 5.1 in 2005 and 5.2 in 2006. Since his demotion, he has been closing games at Triple-A with great success, 15.1 innings pitched, with 4 saves, 25 K’s and just 2 walks. Before you get too excited, his first inning ERA in the majors in 2005 was 5.82 and this year it is 8.40. So it is not like he was mowing major league hitters down early, then getting hit in the later innings. If he becomes the Rays closer, he is a very risky play.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Dustin McGowan was recalled from the minors and started on Saturday against Oakland. He allowed 5 ER in 4.1 innings, while striking out 4 and walking 4. McGowan was averaging a strike out per inning in Triple-A and has a K/9 of 7.32 in 55.1 career big league innings. There is some nice potential here but with a major league career BB/9 of 4.39, McGowan must cut back on the walks before he can be trusted as a fantasy pitcher.
Troy Glaus is having a nice season with 27 Home Runs, 78 RBIs and a .265 batting average. With his strength and a G/F ratio of 0.72, the balls should continue to fly out of the park at high rate. However, his poor contact rate of 75% and a batting eye of 0.66 mean this is probably as high as his average will get.
Alex Rios returned to action in right field on Friday. Reed Johnson started in left field in the first three games since Rios’ return, two of them against right-hand pitchers. It looks like Johnson is a regular now, which will push Frank Catalanatto more into the DH role and Eric Hinske to the bench.
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