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Wednesday August 30, 2006 11:26 am

American League Fantasy Notes:  A.L. Central




Posted by Tom Massimo Categories: Editorial, Fantasy, MLB,

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Since July 31st, in 16.1 innings, reliever Brandon McCarthy has allowed 5 ER, while striking out 16 batters and walking just 5.  He is finally starting to deliver on the strikeout skills that he showed in the minors.  Even with veterans Jose Contreras, Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Javier Vazquez all pitching poorly since the All-Star break, it is doubtful that he will be moved into the rotation this year.  But if he continues to pitch like this, he could find his way into the starting rotation in 2007.

Of the four starters previously mentioned, Javier Vazquez and Freddy Garcia have the best chances of bouncing back.  Despite a 5.06 ERA, Vazquez maintains a solid skill set with a 7.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.  One of his problems is inconsistency.  One night he can be dominant, like on August 5th when he struck out 13 Blue Jays.  Other times, he can be very mediocre, like August 15th when he managed 1 K in 5.1 innings against the lowly Royals.  Another problem is that with a G/F ratio of 1.09, he is not a good fit for US Cellular Field, which increases home run power by 34%.  That being said, he has the skills to put together a good month.

Garcia’s K/9 is in a three-year declining trend of 7.9/5.8/5.5.  Despite a below average K/9, last year he was able to put up a solid season because of a good BB/9 of 2.4 and a career high G/F ratio of 1.60.  This year, with a G/F ratio of 1.09, he has moved away from the groundball approach without an increase in strikeouts.  The good news is that he has maintained good control, a BB/9 of 2.1.  To get back on track, he will have to induce a higher level of groundballs.

Dustin Hermanson, who closed games for most of last season for the White Sox, is rehabbing at Triple-A and should be back with the big league club when the rosters expand.  According to manager Ozzie Guillen, his back problems will prevent him from pitching for more than an inning at a time or in back-to-back days.  Guillen also made it clear that the bullpen is set, so don’t expect to see Hermanson pitch in any meaningful situations.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

Acording to manager Eric Wedge, Casey Blake’s playing time will be limited for the remainder of the season.  He may wind up in the bad half of a platoon with Shin-Soo Choo, while Ryan Garko comes away the big winner with a full-time job at first base.

Since being acquired from Seattle, the 24 year-old Choo has been the opposite of what was expected.  It was thought that he could take advantage of his speed skills while his power developed.  Instead he has produced 10 extra-base hits in 78 AB, but has only 1 steal in 3 attempts.  He has shown an ability to draw a walk, but unless he improves on his 72% contact rate, his current batting average of .295 will head south.

There has been some talk that Jeremy Sowers will be shut down for the season once he reaches the 180 innings mark.  He is currently at 168 innings, so that should give him two more starts.  Fausto Carmona, who was sent back to Triple-A to get in two starts before the end of the minor league season, will probably replace him.  In three starts earlier this season, Carmona had a 7.94 ERA, 5.3 K/9 and a 3.2 BB/9 compared to his 4.78 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and a 3.3 BB/9 as a reliever.  The sample size is small and Carmona is just 22 years old, but the early returns suggest that he may be better suited for relief.

Tom Mastby is 4 for 4 in save opportunities and has the job locked up for the time being.  But since the All-Star break, Fernando Cabrera has flashed the closer-worthy skills of a 2.25 ERA, a 14.0 K/9, and a 3.9 BB/9.  His poor fist half of the season prevented him from getting a shot to close, but if Mastby falters, the second-half data suggests Cabrera could succeed in that role.

DETROIT TIGERS

Fantasy owners of Jeremy Bonderman need not be concerned about his post-All-Star break ERA of 4.89.  During that period, he has a superb 9.6 K/9 and a slightly elevated 3.9 BB/9.  He is still just 23 years old and his overall 2006 numbers of an 8.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and 1.70 G/F ratio are the ones of an elite pitcher.  He is definitely keeper material.

Mike Maroth will not be back until after the rosters expand in September and will be used out of the bullpen.  Wil Ledezma is replacing Zach Miner in the rotation.  Ledezma has pitched well in relief and one spot start.  The 7.4 K/9 is intriguing but with a low G/F of .79, he will have to improve on the 3.9 BB/9.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Zack Greinke will remain with Double-A Wichita until the team is eliminated from the playoffs.  If they go deep into their playoffs, he may not be called up at all.

Since returning from the DL, Mike Sweeney is batting .378, with 3 home runs and 14 RBIs in 72 AB.  If the rest from the DL stint and being the full-time DH can keep his back from bothering him, he is a good play in any format the rest of the way.

Reggie Sanders is out for the season with a partial tear in his left patellar tendon.  That should open up more AB for Emil Brown and Joey Gathright.  Brown has some pop in his bat and could help in home runs and RBIs the rest of the way.

Doug Mientkiewicz is done for the year with a back problem.  That will give Ryan Shealy plenty of AB to help the Royals determine if he is the future at first base.

MINNESOTA TWINS

Torii Hunter has revved up the power with 6 home runs in his last 10 games.  That should erase any doubts that the stress fracture in his foot will affect his power.  Hunter is a free agent this winter and the Twins are in the wildcard race, so as long as he can stand on that foot he will play.

Rondell White is being given the chance to have the full-time DH job.  After an awful first-half, White has hit better since the All-Star break.  However with a very poor batting eye of .17 and evaporating power, don’t expect it to last.

Kubel, who cannot play the outfield due to bad knees, moves to the bench and completely off of the fantasy radar.

In his fourth start, Matt Garza pitched his best game yet.  In 7.2 innings, he allowed 2 ER, while striking out 7 and walking just 1.  Keep in mind that it was against the Royals.  At this point, Garza should only be used when the match-up is favorable and his next start in Yankee Stadium is not.

 

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