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Wednesday August 23, 2006 12:30 am
American League Fantasy Notes: A.L. Central
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Ryan Garko has started the last six games at first base, four of which were against right-handed pitchers. The early returns look good, 3 home runs, 12 RBIs, and a .326 average in his first 46 AB. With regular playing time, he can be used in AL-only leagues for a power boost. Just be aware that he had an 82% contact rate and a .247 batting average in 364 Triple-A AB, so there can be some serious batting average downside. When Casey Blake returns, it should also cut into his playing time.
If the Indians closer situation wasn’t confused enough, Thomas Mastny pitched 2 innings for the Indians only successful save conversion of the week. Mastny earned a promotion to the big leagues with a 2.61 ERA and a 10.9 K/9 in 38 Triple-A innings. Since coming to the Indians, he has 8 K’s, 2 BB’s and I ER in 6.1 innings. With no one else stepping up in the bullpen, he might be worth taking a flyer on if you are desperate for saves.
In just his second full season, 24-year old Grady Sizemore has shown improvement across the board. He is four home runs away from matching last year’s total of 22, has already hit four more doubles than last year and has 9 triples. As his power matures some of the 41 doubles that he has this year will turn into home runs, which gives him 30+ home-run potential. After going 22 of 32 in steals last year, he has improved to 18 of 21 so far this season. His batting eye of .54 is also up from last year’s 39. That number is also a bit deceptive because with an 11% BB rate, he is working counts well. His batting eye would be higher if he made better contact. Sizemore is a 30/30 potential player and a candidate to be a top fantasy performer in the coming years.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Alex Cintron has been stealing some AB from Juan Uribe. Recently Cintron has outperformed Uribe at the plate, but Uribe is still the superior hitter. Cintron is a powerless hitter with a poor batting eye. His good speed and contact skills give him the potential to hit for a decent average. A quick glance at the 8 stolen bases would make one think that he is worth rostering in AL-only leagues, but he has not had a steal since June 29th.
Uribe has been an extremely streaky hitter this season. He had a poor April and May, followed that up with a strong June and July, only to slump again in August. His biggest problem is the complete abandonment of plate patience, which is surprising considering the strides he made in the second-half of last season when he hit 10 home runs and had a .58 batting eye. This season his batting eye has dropped all the way down to .18. With 14 homes runs, 22 doubles and 2 triples, the power is still there. Manager Ozzie Guillen will tire of Cintron’s lack of production soon enough and if Uribe can be a bit more selective, he could be a good source of middle infield power down the stretch.
Jose Contreras has been hit hard in 3 of his last 4 starts, allowing 20 ER in 27.1 innings. His K/9 is down from 6.8 in 2005 to 5.7 this year and would be worse if you took out two games where he had 13 and 11 strikeouts. It could be an age related decline or have something to do with the back problems that forced him on the DL in May. Either way, it is hard to have full confidence in him the rest of the way.
DETROIT TIGERS
Apparently, Jim Leyland prefers the empty stats of Neifi Perez over the potential of Omar Infante as the second base replacement for the injured Placido Polanco. This makes both of them worthless in fantasy leagues.
After hitting 17 home runs in first-half of the season, Brandon Inge has just 4 since the All-Star break. He is also struggling with his batting average, hitting .235 for the month of August. If he is not hitting home runs then he has no fantasy value because his poor contact rate of 75% and batting eye of .31 put a ceiling on his batting average.
Carlos Guillen is having a fine season and is actually displaying a better skill set than he did in his breakout 2004 season. He is making more contact, 85% up from 83%, displaying a better batting eye, .85 vs. .60, and is better on the basepaths, 17 for 23 vs. 12 for 17. The power is down slightly, but the solid season removes any doubt that his problem knee would eat into his production.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Joe Nelson has successfully converted the Royals last three save opportunities and appears to have seized the closer job.
With just 4 extra-base hits in his first 83 AB with the Royals, Ryan Shealy has not shown the power that was expected of him. His .264 average is above his skill set considering his poor contact rate of 73% and batting eye of .33. The sample size is small and we will get a better read on his skills as he gets more AB.
Joey Gathright has been caught stealing 5 times in 10 tries since joining the Royals. In 150 career games with the Devil Rays, he was 39 for 52 in the steals department, so the skills are there. Expect to see improvement on the basepaths.
MINNESOTA TWINS
It is not like he cannot pitch on the road, but Johan Santana loves pitching in the Metrodome. In 2006, he is a perfect 9-0 with a 2.40 ERA at home. Overall, his 15-5 record, 3.03 ERA, 9.37 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 put him in the elite class of major league pitchers.
Boof Bonser has struggled since being recalled to replace the injured Francisco Liriano in the rotation. In 3 starts he has allowed 10 ER in 15 innings. He is also still having problems with gopheritis, allowing a home run in each start. For the season, that gives him 12 home runs allowed in just 50.2 innings. The 15 K’s and 4 walks in those same 15 innings hint at some intriguing potential, but he should be avoided until he shows he can tame the longball.
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