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Wednesday August 16, 2006 11:35 am
American League Fantasy Notes: A.L. Central
DETROIT TIGERS
Placido Polanco was placed on the 15-day DL and could miss the rest of the season with a separated shoulder. Omar Infante steps in as the starting second baseman. Still just 24 years old, Infante has the potential to be a power/speed type player. With a G/F ratio of .66 last year and .81 this season, he hits a lot of fly balls. A problem is that his power is still developing and he plays half his games in a stadium that suppresses right-handed batting power by 15%, so many of those fly balls are falling for outs. Another problem is that with his free-swinging ways and increased playing time, his batting average of .264 will take a hit. He needs to show improvement in his 78% contact rate and .19 batting eye.
Magglio Ordonez’s power has gone AWOL since the All-Star break. After hitting 16 home runs in the first-half of the season, he has gone homerless in 112 post-break AB. Playing half his games in Coamerica Park and with a G/F ratio of 1.21, the first-half power was over his head. He is obviously not as powerless as his second-half numbers show, but don’t expect the home runs to start flying out like they did earlier in the season.
Mike Maroth has not looked good in his two rehab starts, allowing 7 runs in 8 innings. In nine major league starts this year, Maroth has a 5-2 record, with a 3.56, despite having an underwhelming K/9 of 4.2 and G/F of 1.16. He will only get a shot in the rotation if Zach Miner falters or if Justin Verlander’s arm gives him more trouble.
Curtis Granderson is having a rough August, batting just .174. A troubling sign is the erosion of his plate patience and contact rate. From April to June his batting eye was .51 and contact rate was 79%. From July to the present, his batting eye is .24 and contact rate is 69%. He is still a young hitter so it could be that he is pressing because of a slump or it could be that major league pitchers are catching up with him. Either way, if he continues to struggle, he will lose playing time in a crowded Detroit outfield.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
With a little more help from his bullpen, Javier Vazquez’s ERA could be at least a full run lower. He maintains a solid K/9 of 7.5 and BB/9 of 2.6. With a tightening division race and a close wild card battle, he should be pitching in plenty of meaningful games the rest of the way.
With 5.1 scoreless innings in his last 4 appearances, Bobby Jenks appears to have worked his way out of his slump.
Scott Podsednik has just 3 post-all-star break stolen bases. If he isn’t stealing, he does not have much fantasy value as he has no power and a .262 batting average.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Last Sunday, Travis Hafner tied a major league record with his 6th grand slam of the season. He now has 35 home runs, 105 RBIs and a .302 batting average. The home run total is already a career high and he is within 4 of equaling a career mark for RBIs. He is one of the top fantasy performers in all of baseball.
It is hard to get a read on the Indians closer situation. Since Fausto Carmona was removed from the role after he blew a save on August 5th, the Indians have had only two save situations. In one Jason Davis allowed 3 runs in 1/3 of an inning and Rafael Betancourt came in and blew the save. In the other, they let reliever Brian Sikorski finish out the game. Davis and Betancourt need to be monitored to see who will get the bulk of save opportunities.
In his first 38 AB as an Indian, Andy Marte has looked horrible. With a .105 average and one extra-base hit, he is not hitting for average or power. The poor contact he was making in Triple-A, 77%, has been further exposed in the majors, 71%. At just 22 years of age and with his power still developing, Jacobs Field, which suppresses right-handed batting power by 28%, is not the best place to start. He remains a nice prospect, but not someone that you want on your fantasy roster this year.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
After going to the All-Star Game, only because someone on the Royals had to, Mark Redman has shown he is anything but an all-star. In his last five starts he allowed 25 ER in 23.1 innings. With such poor 2006 underlying stats of a 3.8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 1.37 G/F ratio, it was only a matter of time before his luck ran out. Don’t expect a rebound.
According to a Kansas City newspaper, Joe Nelson is at the head of a closer-by-committee approach implemented by manager Buddy Bell. Nelson is a 31-year old minor league journeyman pitcher, who previous to this season threw 4 major league innings and allowed 13 ER. Despite the less than stellar history, Nelson has looked good in relief this season, posting a 2.89 ERA in 28 innings. His K/9 of 7.7 is ok for a reliever but on the low side for a closer. His BB/9 of 3.9 is high and will get him into trouble. The other problem is that he has allowed just one home run with a low 1.15 G/F ratio. Once that corrects and a few more home runs fly out of the park, his ERA will go up.
What a difference a trip to the minor leagues made for Mark Teahen. Before being sent down in May, in 77 AB, he had 2 home runs, 11 RBIs and was batting .195. Since being recalled in June, in 233 AB, he has 12 home runs, 47 RBIs and is batting .309. There has also been some nice growth in his underlying stats. His contact rate has improved from 70% to 81% and his batting eye has shot up from .22 to .69. At 24 years old, he is developing into a good third baseman with a nice future ahead of him.
GM Drayton Moore stated that Zack Greinke will not be called up this month. A September call-up remains a possibility. In his last four starts, Greinke has been dominating with 30 K’s and a 1.00 ERA in 30 innings.
MINNESOTA TWINS
In his first start, Matt Garza proved that not every hot rookie prospect is going to pitch like Jered Weaver. He allowed seven runs in 2.2 innings against the Blue Jays. The difference between Weaver’s Triple-A K/9 of 10.87 and Garza’s K/9 of 8.74 shows how dominating Weaver was before coming to the majors. That being said, Garza remains a top prospect, but for now, should only be used in favorable matchups.
It is looking like Shannon Stewart is out for the season. With Rondell White also on the DL, that should give Jason Tyner playing time in the outfield. Tyner has just three extra-base hits in 118 AB. He has also yet to steal a base, being thrown out in his lone attempt.
Carlos Silva’s is having a poor season, with an ERA of 6.41. A pitcher with such a low K/9 of 3.6 cannot have success with a G/F of 1.14. Contrast that with last season when his ERA was 3.44 and his G/F was 1.55. Since he does not offer help in K’s, WHIP or ERA, he is not worth using in any format.
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