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Wednesday August 2, 2006 10:05 am

American League Fantasy Notes: A.L. Central




Posted by Tom Massimo Categories: Editorial, Fantasy, MLB,

Joe Crede is getting hotCHICAGO WHITE SOX

Joe Crede hit his 23nd home run on Tuesday Night surpassing a career high set last year.  His 22 doubles is one more than all of 2005’s output.  Crede’s 90% contact rate, a good 5% to 7% above his usual numbers, has now held up for over a half-season.  Sustaining it over that long of a time frame means it could legitimately represent a skill growth.  At 28 years old, he is at the right age for his power to be peaking.  The numbers show that Crede is making better contact and hitting the ball harder.  Stay with him, a 30 home run, 100 RBI season is easily within reach.

A.J. Pierzynski’s .320 batting average is over his head.  His strong 88% contact rate is within his career levels, but a poor batting eye of .37 and a lack of speed or power should bring his average down 20 to 30 points.

Jim Thome has sat out three straight games with a sore right wrist and back spasms.  The back spasms are more worrisome as he has had problems in that area before.  He is considered day to day.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

The Indians traded second baseman Ronnie Belliard to the Cardinals for 2B-SS Hector Luna.  Luna should initially share time with Joe Inglett at second base.  Inglett bats left-handed but it wont be a strict platoon.  His future lies more in a utility role.  He makes good contact but lacks speed or power, which makes him a non-factor in fantasy leagues.

Luna showed some nice speed skills in 2005, with 10 steals in 12 attempts, in just 64 games.  He has regressed this season, with 5 steals in 8 tries, while appearing in 78 games.  His future is probably as a utility player also, but he is worth a shot in AL-only leagues for some potential steals.

The Indians also picked up Shin-Soo Choo in a trade with the Mariners.  The plan is to play him in right-field against right-handed pitching.  Choo projects as power/speed type player.  For now he is more likely to make an impact on the basepaths.  He was 26 for 30 in steals this year in Triple-A, so he knows how to get it done. His batting eye and contact rate are not spectacular, but are adequate to get on base enough to generate some steals.  His power is still developing and playing his home games in a park that suppresses left-handed power by 21% will not help.  He is worth a shot in AL-only leagues and deep mixed leagues for speed, just don’t expect help in batting average or power.

DETROIT TIGERS

The Tigers traded for Sean Casey to replace Chris Shelton at first base.  Casey maintains a high contact rate and above average batting eye, so he should continue to hit for average.  His power has completely evaporated.  He hit 24 home runs in 2004, at the prime power age of 30, playing in the homer friendly Great American Ballpark.  This year, at age 32, he has just 3 with a nearly identical G/F ratio.  The combination of playing in neutral PNC park, injuries, and possible age-related skills erosion are to blame.  Moving to Coamerica Park will not help his power. 

After a hot April, Chris Shelton wrote his ticket back to the minors by having just 6 home runs and 25 RBIs since May 1st.  He will be back in September, but it is doubtful that a team in playoff contention would send someone to the minors in August that they would be planning to use in a big role later in the season. 

With Craig Monroe and Dmitri Young swinging hot sticks and Casey coming on board, Marcus Thames will be the odd man out for the time being.  Mixed leaguers should keep him on reserve as Monroe, Young and Casey are all injury prone.  Monroe and Young are also streaky hitters who could fall into deep slumps.  Thames will get another shot at regular time at some point this season.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

The Royals picked up first baseman Ryan Shealy in a trade with Rockies and with Doug Mientkiewicz going on the DL, he should get a chance to start immediately.  Shealy turns 27 later this month and is little old to be getting his first shot at regular playing time.  His defense and having Todd Helton at first base blocked his path to the majors.  At 6’5 and 240 lbs., Shealy is big and strong.  He was putting up very nice power numbers in Triple-A.  His contact rate and batting eye are marginal, so don’t expect him to hit for average.  The power potential takes a huge hit going from Coors Field to Kauffman Stadium, though he should be able to launch enough balls over the fence to be used in AL-only leagues.

Surprisingly, the Royals put newly acquired Jorge De La Rosa in the starting rotation and he responded by allowing 2 ER in six innings, while striking out 7.  De La Rosa’s high K/9 makes him intriguing, but until he cuts back on the walks, he cannot be trusted as a fantasy starter.

Scott Elarton is done for the season with a torn labrum.  He won’t be ready to return until mid-2007.

MINNESOTA TWINS

Torii Hunter returned to action on Monday and will play while the stress fracture in his foot is still healing.  Judging from his performance in his first game back of 3-5, with a home run and four RBIs, the foot is not affecting his hitting.  Running the bases will be a different story.  Don’t count on him for stolen bases for awhile.

Hot prospect Matt Garza could get a shot a starting some games this year, especially if Scott Baker continues to struggle.  Garza absolutely dominated Double-A and has pitched well in four starts in Triple-A   His Triple-A K/9 of 7.3 means he is probably not ready to dominate major-league hitters.  It would make sense for teams in keeper leagues playing for next year to pick him up, but those going for it this should look elsewhere.

27 year old, Josh Rabe has started his major league career by going 10 for 23, with 2 home runs.  Considering that he has just 4 home runs in 316 Triple-A AB this season, the power is a fluke.  With Torii Hunter back and Lew Ford returning early next week, he will find his way to the bench or back to the minors once his bat cools down.

Francisco Liriano is being scratched from his scheduled start on Wednesday because of discomfort in his left elbow.  An MRI showed no structural damage, but one would think the Twins will be very careful with their prize, 21 year old lefthander.

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