KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Just as quickly as he was demoted from the closer role, Ambiorix Burgos is back in it after the Royals traded Mike MacDougal.  While Burgos’ 9.0 K/9 is impressive, a BB/9 rate of 4.9 and 10 home runs allowed in 48 innings has led to 9 blown saves and a 5.25 ERA.  He is just 22 years old and there is talent here, it just won’t happen this year.

Mike Sweeney is heading for a rehab assignment and could be activated from the DL next week.  He will almost certainly be used exclusively as the full-time DH upon his return.  His injury history will always make him a risky play, but he does own some very nice offensive skills.

The Royals acquisition of second baseman Jeff Keppinger from the Mets could be a sign that they will move Mark Grudzielanek by the August 1st trade deadline.  Keppinger makes good contact and has a strong batting eye, but lacks the power or speed to be a fantasy asset.

Reggie Sanders went on the 15 day with a right thigh strain, almost eliminating the possibility of a trade by August 1st.  Because he is owed $5 Million for next season, he should be able to pass through waivers, so a trade in August is still possible.  The Royals recalled Shane Costa to take his spot on the roster.  Costa was hitting .377 in Triple-A, but in 134 AB with the Royals this year he has a .20 batting eye and a 1.47 G/F ratio.  Stay away from him, as he will hurt your batting average.

The Royals acquired left-hander Odalis Perez and a pair of minor leaguers for Elmer Dessens.  Perez has not pitched as bad as his 6.83 ERA would indicate.  9 home runs allowed in 59.1 innings and some poor bullpen support has hurt him.  That being said, his K/9 is down to 5.1 from the 6.20 to 6.90 area where it was when he had his greatest success.  Moving to the American League and baseball’s worst team won’t help either.

The Royals also traded infielder Tony Graffanino to the Brewers for left-hander Jorge De La Rosa.  De La Rosa is out of options so he will stick around in middle relief.  Poor command will keep him there and off of the fantasy radar.  Graffanino’s departure will give Esteban German some more AB.  He could be a cheap source of steals in AL-only leagues.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Closer Bobby Jenks has hit a rough patch, 7.95 ERA in his last 8.0 innings.  The source of the problem has been the 7 walks allowed in that same period.  Eight innings is a small sample size and the walks had not been a problem in over a year.  He’s still striking out batters and has just one blown save on the year.  It will take a lot more than this to remove him from the closer role.

Jon Garland has been on a nice run, lowering his ERA from 6.19 on June 8th to 4.78.  Talk up this stretch and last year’s 18 wins, then deal him.  Garland’s low K/9 of 4.56 combined with a low G/F ratio of 1.05 is a recipe for disaster and neither has shown improvement during his streak.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

As expected, the Indians traded Bob Wickman and installed Fausto Carmona as their closer.  Carmona should hold down the role for the balance of the season, as the Indians will want to see if he can handle being a closer or if they need to pick one up in the off-season.

There is some speculation that the Indians are ready to replace Aaron Boone at third base with prospect Andy Marte.  Marte has shown good power in Triple-A this season, but is striking out way too much, 81 times in 350 AB.  Jacobs Field is one of the tougher places to hit home runs in the American League and at just 22 years of age, his power skills may not be ready for such a challenge.  The poor contact that he is making in Triple-A will translate into a low major-league batting average.  For those going for it this year, he should be avoided.

Cliff Lee is an extreme flyball pitcher with a 0.64 G/F ratio.  Such pitchers are always living on the edge, especially when they have an average K/9 ratio, like Lee’s 6.23.  Some years the balls will stay in the park, like last year when Lee went 18-5, with a 3.79 ERA, while allowing 22 home runs.  Other years the balls will fly out of park, like this year’s 19 home runs allowed.  Add in a slight uptick in his BB/9 from last year’s 2.3 to this year’s 2.7 and you get an ERA a run higher than last year.

DETROIT TIGERS

Dmitri Young has returned from injuries and personal problems.  A mini-streak of 8 for his first 19, with 2 homers and 5 RBIs, may initially cut into Marcus Thames, Craig Monroe and Chris Shelton’s playing time, but don’t count on it lasting.  Young’s high G/F ratio, 1.53 last year, and playing half his games in spacious Coamerica Park will limit his power.  A deteriorating batting eye, down from .46 in 2004 to .29 last year to .22 this year, and a below average contact rate will keep his batting average down.

Nate Robertson has a history of fading in the second-half.  His first-half/second-half ERA splits in the previous two seasons were 4.11/5.79 in 2004 and 3.35/5.70 in 2005.  Holding to form, he has allowed 10 ER in 13.2 post all-star break innings this year.

If Robertson or Zach Miner continues to struggle, it will open the door for Mike Maroth to return to the rotation in late August or early September.  Maroth is scheduled to make his first rehab start on August 9th.

Kenny Rogers is another pitcher who has faded in the second-half the last couple of seasons.  His first-half/second-half ERA splits in the previous two seasons pitching for Texas were 4.21/5.46 in 2004 and 2.54/4.72 in 2005.  Rogers is 41 years old and has been getting by with mediocre stuff, a 5.13 K/9 ratio, so this trend should continue.

MINNESOTA TWINS

Don’t buy into Jason Tyner’s hot start of a .391 batting average in his first 46 AB.  Only 1 of his 18 hits has been for extra-bases and he has only walked twice.  He has G/F ratio of 3.40.  Once the groundballs stop finding holes at the current rate, his average will come down hard.

Brad Radke has recovered nicely from an ERA of 8.89 on April 28th to 4.74.  Pinpoint control has always been the key to Radke’s success and he seems to have rediscovered it after some early season bouts with wildness.  In his last 7 starts covering 45 innings, he has allowed just 2 walks.  His low K/9 of 4.67 and low G/F ratio of 1.11 will prevent him from being a great pitcher.  But as long as he keeps the walks in check, he can be a productive fantasy pitcher.

It is a mystery why Luis Castillo stopped being a top stolen base threat.  He has battled some problems with his left knee.  But with 101 hits in 365 AB and G/F ratio of 3.17, he looks like he has no problem getting down the line to beat out some of the many groundballs he hits.  For a guy who is still only 30 years old, has an outstanding batting eye of 1.12, has 78 singles this year and stole 48 bases in 2002, the 11 for 16 in SBs this year is disappointing.