Microsoft’s Andre Vrignaud linked to an interesting study of online next-generation console interest published by online metric provider Complete. The analysis shows relative online interest in the three next-generation consoles as tracked via the Compete toolbar technology. According to the tracking numbers, both the Wii and the PS3 peaked around their launch date, with the Wii running up slightly more user interest. The Xbox 360 hit its popularity peak for the three months from November to January right around Thanksgiving, which would tie in somewhat to a number of promotions run around the Xbox 360 at this time. After the holiday season, all three consoles tail off in online click-through. The Wii still leads, but the Playstation 3 and the Xbox 360 match nearly exactly. Further, it appears that Playstation 3 searchers are transferring to either the Xbox 360 or the Wii.

Overall, though, it is hard to gauge how accurately this tracks real-world purchasing. First, given that Compete gets its tracking numbers though the number of users that have installed the Compete Toolbar, it is hard to say how accurately this reflects the general Internet public. Secondly, given the difficulty in acquiring either a Playstation 3 or a Wii and both consoles’ lack of availability online, one would have a hard time tying an online visit into a retail conversion. A longer period of observation tied with real-world sales numbers as all consoles become readily available at retail will give a better indication of the correlation between online visits and actual sales numbers.