Way back in time, I made a prediction, and was laughed at.  I was told that I was just saying it to be controversial and generate traffic.  That may have been a small part of it, but aside from the funny little story deep down I believed it.

You can read it here: I predicted that Nintendo would win the Next Gen War, back in October of 2005.

As the latest NPD Figures show, Wii is crushing all comers, developers are taking notice and are starting to develop for it.  It’s not a matter of “If” anymore, it’s a matter of “WHEN” the Wii will surpass the Xbox 360, a feat Sony failed to do with their PS3.

Oh and before anyone thinks it’s just a Fad, check out these software numbers.

It’s over, Wii won.  If neither have done it yet, they better both start to consider their plans to come in second.  Sony has the most to lose by coming in third, but I would be surprised if there was an Xbox 720 if they came in third.

I walk into ANY store that sells video games, I can easily find a PS3, or a Xbox 360.  I’ve seen a Wii box, ONCE.  Its older technology, easier to manufacture, and they STILL can’t keep up with demand.

It’s also cheaper to develop for, and it is no longer just some fad as NPD and Software sales numbers show.  Developers will go where the money is, and the safe money is in the Wii, cheaper to develop for, no high fees to pay to Nintendo as compared to Sony and MS, (So I’ve heard, no direct proof of course) and a much better chance of million dollar sales.

The best hope for either company is that Wii gamers will crave more than what the Wii offers, and start looking for something more eye-pleasing. 

Good Luck Sony and Microsoft, unless millions of casual gamers suddenly drop dead, I don’t see anyway for either of you to be #1 this generation.

Yeah, I remember that prediction you made. I think I called you a LUNATIC back then. Well, I still say
you’re lunatic…....but your prediction was right-on. However, what really scares me as a hardcore
gamer is the thought of droves of developers trying to create the next “Wii Fitness.” I’m nervous
as hell that complicated games with amazing stories will be passed-over in favor of trying to make
a quick buck off the casual gamer…...bye the way, did anyone else read that research study which
showed that the hardcore gamer accounts for about 97% of the games that are sold every month?
According to the research, the casual gamer only buys a few games per year. Food for thought…..

dude , oh I so disagree. theres a suprise…
we are 1 year in and the ps3 has been in europe 6 months.

I have to state one fact…. the ps2 has sold 120 million unit…. thats 120 million units…
the war isnt over hell the they havent even started yet.
Call this a pub fight for now.

lets put this in music terms.

ps3 - metallica
xbox 360 - Iron maiden
Wii - spice girls..

Now you gotta ask yourself are the spice girls going after the same market as Iron maiden…. no…. well not yet any way.

going back to the bar fight , the wii isnt in the bar its at home with its mum cause its not old enough to drink yet cause its 8

The wii can get first place but I will never count it as its not in competiton with the other two.
Hell its easy to win a war if your the only one in that fight. I just hope we dont more teenie pop consoles released.
sorry turned in to a rant there…  I just would like to ask Andy how much he is playing with his wii (and how big it is)

CooperHawkes - 24 July 2007 10:20 AM

Way back in time, I made a prediction, and was laughed at.  I was told that I was just saying it to be controversial and generate traffic.  That may have been a small part of it, but aside from the funny little story deep down I believed it.

You can read it here: I predicted that Nintendo would win the Next Gen War, back in October of 2005.

As the latest NPD Figures show, Wii is crushing all comers, developers are taking notice and are starting to develop for it.  It’s not a matter of “If” anymore, it’s a matter of “WHEN” the Wii will surpass the Xbox 360, a feat Sony failed to do with their PS3.

Oh and before anyone thinks it’s just a Fad, check out these software numbers.

It’s over, Wii won.  If neither have done it yet, they better both start to consider their plans to come in second.  Sony has the most to lose by coming in third, but I would be surprised if there was an Xbox 720 if they came in third.

I walk into ANY store that sells video games, I can easily find a PS3, or a Xbox 360.  I’ve seen a Wii box, ONCE.  Its older technology, easier to manufacture, and they STILL can’t keep up with demand.

It’s also cheaper to develop for, and it is no longer just some fad as NPD and Software sales numbers show.  Developers will go where the money is, and the safe money is in the Wii, cheaper to develop for, no high fees to pay to Nintendo as compared to Sony and MS, (So I’ve heard, no direct proof of course) and a much better chance of million dollar sales.

The best hope for either company is that Wii gamers will crave more than what the Wii offers, and start looking for something more eye-pleasing. 

Good Luck Sony and Microsoft, unless millions of casual gamers suddenly drop dead, I don’t see anyway for either of you to be #1 this generation.

Nintendo MUST be holding back on thir stock. Trust me, I work at Gamestop. There is no way that Nintendo cannot keep up with the demand for the Wii. Trust me. Nintendo wants to keep the demand up. There is no way that Nintendo can’t produce enough. You are right. It has the cheapest technology in it. There is only one logical explanation….....

I have to agree Hawkes. I remember that Prediction.

I also do remember ripping on the Wii for having a lack of games and the Virtual Console.

But then seeing it in action with Wii Sports and some others.. I ate my words and bought one..

I feel like a prick now.

The one thing that concerns me about the Wii is software.  If you look at the charts, Nintendo is doing well, as they always have for their units, but what about third parties?  Ubisoft has had some success on the Wii.

Is it me, or are they not as many Wii owners buying Wii software outside of Nintendo’s offerings?  For the number of consoles sold, you would think the software numbers would match what the 360 is doing in terms of games.  Most third party 360 titles are selling over 100,000 units, even on the mediocre games.

Something else I’ve noticed…  the Wii has a lower number of highly rated games compared to the PS3 and 360.  Look at the top 20 rated games for each console on Metacritic for example.

Well the wii is doing great for the moment but the casual gamer might get sick of there wii after a year of it.And the way its going now wont have any hardcore gamers because all that are comeing out are non games.Id say that the wii will lose momentum in the years its out.The ps 3 will come on top provideing sony get there act together.And microsoft will sell a decent amount of hardware.Id also say sony wont go top until at least another year.Also ps 3 and 360 might sell more games than the wii.

IRISHREAP3R - 24 July 2007 06:29 PM

Well the wii is doing great for the moment but the casual gamer might get sick of there wii after a year of it.And the way its going now wont have any hardcore gamers because all that are comeing out are non games.Id say that the wii will lose momentum in the years its out.The ps 3 will come on top provideing sony get there act together.And microsoft will sell a decent amount of hardware.Id also say sony wont go top until at least another year.Also ps 3 and 360 might sell more games than the wii.

At last some one agrees with me…
welcome to my mad world…

I agree with Hawkes that the Wii is going to win when it comes to hardware sales.

However, I think there may be less of a clear victory when it comes to software sales.  I think we are going to see a much higher attach rate on the 360 and PS3 than we will on the Wii.  I think the Wii is a nice idea for people who are the more “casual” gamers or people who are not gamers to get into gaming.  I just have a feeling that they are not going to spend the $ on mass quantities of software that the 360 and P$3 users will spend.  If I am willing to spend $400-$600 on a console, I will be more likely to buy 2 titles a month vs the guy who just bought a Wii for $250.

I see the Wii ending up with a LOT of people renting games, but not as many buying them.  Of course, I may be completely wrong.

A big reason the Wii is going to win is that the full version (ie ungimped) is $150 cheaper than the next ungimped pricepoint for the 2 “Next Gen” systems.  If Microsoft wants to compete with Nintendo, then they are going to have to match their price.  Plain as that.

I also agree that the Wii may be the “gateway drug” for a nw generation of gamers.  They may get just enough of a taste of gaming that they crave more, then they look into the beauty of next-gen graphics and move on to the “serious” gaming systems.

We’ll see.  Regardless, its going to be a fun ride.

If Nintendo can do anything, it’s bring in new gamers to the fold.  How many of us started on the NES with Mario?  We call ourselves hardcore, but even the most hardcore among us will be pissing their pants when Mario Galaxy or SSBM comes out.  What you guys are forgetting is that Nintendo develops some great games for their own system.  Third party developers may always lean towards the more powerful consoles, but Nintendo will consistently put out quality software.

Okay Hawkes, you called the Nintendo Wii winning the console war, ALONG with EVERY other Nintendo Fanboy and much of the media. Want a medal or something?

Nintendo would have to have a pretty serious meltdown on all fronts to #### this up.

Slymanx - 25 July 2007 01:41 AM

Okay Hawkes, you called the Nintendo Wii winning the console war, ALONG with EVERY other Nintendo Fanboy and much of the media. Want a medal or something?

Look at the date of the article, I called Nintendo winning in October of 2005.  Before ANY of the consoles even came out.  Give me a little credit.

Well, Nintendo Fanboys have done the same. I just enjoy busting your balls.

Slymanx - 25 July 2007 05:06 PM

Well, Nintendo Fanboys have done the same. I just enjoy busting your balls.

And doing it quite well may I add.. 😊 Do I need to do another shoutout sir?? 😊