With some fantasy hoops draft long over with, but many others likely still to come, I thought it would be best to discuss the fluctuations in the draft position of some players.  ADP (Average Draft Position) is widely used in fantasy football and is becoming more and more prevalent in the fantasy hoops world. 

What ADP can tell us is not only where in drafts players are being selected, but we can also use the information to monitor trends, albeit increases or decreases in value.  The following list of players will delve into those that have either seen a considerable increase or decrease in their average draft value over the course of the last few weeks, using a lot of the data compiled by the GMTR tracker.

Movin’ On Up!

Raymond Felton, PG/SG, Charlotte Bobcats

The NBA.com experts draft, though long ago, saw Felton go off of the board with the 66th selection overall.  More recent drafts have seen nearly a full round increase in draft position as the Dropping Dimes expert league draft saw Dennis nab Felton with the 56th pick, irking those after him – including myself.  Felton is still being drafted after guards Brandon Roy and Leandro Barbosa, both of whom are question marks right now due to injury and lineup rotation respectively.  While I don’t see Felton’s draft position passing up said guards, those may want to prepare to use a fourth round pick on the Bobcats point guard as his value won’t be dropping past the fifth any time soon.

Yao Ming, C, Houston Rockets

We may want to attribute Ming’s move to the uncertainty revolving around the center position this season.  Three mocks earlier in the year saw Ming fall all the way to the end of the first round, but those days look like they are in the rear view mirror as Mock Draft Central as well as Kelly Dwyer from True Hoop obviously feel different – with the big man going as early as fifth overall.  If you must nab a big man in the first, you’re going to be selecting between Amare Stoudemire and Yao Ming.  If you’ve seen our rankings you know who we are a bigger fan of, so plan accordingly.

Brad Miller, C, Sacramento Kings

I told myself that I would never draft Miller again after what he did to me in last season’s expert league.  Drafts early on in the summer saw Miller’s stock fall to the double-digit rounds, with NBA.com using their 135th selection overall to purchase the center’s services.  Each draft in the GMTR database since then has seen an increase in Miller’s draft position with the most recent selection being the 82nd overall – over a 50-pick differential.  It’s looking more and more like he’ll stick around this area as he’s being taken around the seventh round in current drafts.  His best days are behind him, but if you need a serviceable second center, Miller could be your man – if you’re willing to pay for it.

LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, Portland Trailblazers

This one is more of a “duh” movement than anything else.  The NBA.com mock drafts, as well as the 2007 Basketball Action Magazine drafts had taken place before Greg Oden’s dreaded microfracture surgery.  These two drafts saw him fall off of the board in the seventh round.  Good luck getting him at that level now as he has recently gone as high as 32nd overall – a three-plus round jump.  He’s center eligible and is going to be the main (if not only) offensive weapon down low for the ‘Blazers.  While I do feel that 32nd is quite a reach for the second-year big man, he should be long gone by the sixth round.

Peja Stojakovic, SF, New Orleans Hornets

It was almost like early drafts were going on based on last season’s stats and then all of a sudden someone said, “Hey, wait.  What about Peja?”  Stojakovic’s value was in the 100s early on in the summer and has recently increased to the mid-70s, going 74th overall in the Dropping Dimes expert’s draft.  Now just because an “expert” took him in what would be the seventh round doesn’t mean that he’s guaranteed to produce.  When he was on Sacramento, he was the main scoring option and even then provided little beyond scoring, threes and percentages.  Buyer beware.

Down, Down, Down.  Red Knight’s Goin’ Down.

Chris Bosh, PF/C, Toronto Raptors

While it isn’t a huge move by any means, Chris Bosh’s knee has started to worry some owners.  The old saying goes that you can’t win a league in the first round of a draft, but here at Dropping Dimes, we feel that a league can definitely be lost.  With the attempt to take the least amount of risk possible in the first round, Bosh has seen his stock go from about tenth overall in fantasy drafts to about the 17th overall spot.  This shows that some owners have even opted to pass on the Toronto big man twice, and going with other options toward the end of the first and the beginning of the second rounds.

Monta Ellis, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors

Uh oh.  Is he going to start or not?  The Warriors got rid of Jason Richardson, opening up what many thought would be huge amount of production from one of last season’s biggest surprises.  Not so fast.  Rumors are circulating that several of his friends have caused trouble at Warriors games, and Ellis himself isn’t even the best asset in the locker room.  Marco Belinelli’s emergence in the summer league as well as Don Nelson’s rotations may plague Ellis all season long.  You saw what he did (or didn’t do) in the playoffs last season – don’t be shocked if his recent fall from mid-60s to as low as 100 overall is lending more insight than we know.

Josh Childress, SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks

Yes, this is the same Childress that has been oh so productive for fantasy owners over the past few years.  Not excelling in any specific category, Chidress’ efficiency when on the floor as well as his lack of turnovers have led him to become one of the more quiet fantasy assets in the game.  While Childress will get some time, the recent addition of Al Horford won’t be freeing up any more time with Shelden Williams and Marvin Williams playing power forward, Josh Smith being locked in at the small forward, and Joe Johnson at the two.  While is roto statistics will allow for productivity, the fact that he’s slid from the mid-70s to the triple-digits may be warranted. 

Delonte West, PG/SG, Seattle Supersonics

All early selections of Delonte West seemed to be more speculation than anything else in that the tweener guard would lock up one of the starting back court positions.  P.J. Carlisimo threw us all a curve ball by starting prize rookie Kevin Durant at the shooting guard slot, forcing West into a logjam at the point with Earl Watson and Luke Ridnour.  There’s a shot that Watson still gets the starting point guard gig for the Sonics, but until this is ironed out, there’s no doubting his slide from the eighth round in mocks to the middle of the tenth where he’s being drafted in current leagues.

There will obviously be plenty of ADP movement between now and the rest of the regular season as the final starting spots become filled.  Check back often to see our updated thoughts on these placements.