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Wednesday October 24, 2007 8:18 pm
2007-08 Trade Impact
It happens every year - that big offseason trade to turn the fantasy world on its ears. Or does it?
Well, this year it certainly did and in more than one deal. Seattle blew up its roster, Boston revamped theirs, two big-time shooters went down South, and one fat forward is in the Big Apple. All this AND more! So what are the bigger trades of the offseason, and how do they affect how you should be drafting your fantasy team?
Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to Boston: The biggest fantasy shake-up of the year is easy to spot, and a lot harder to analyze. One thing is for sure, Paul Pierce will still be the focal point of this offense. Most basketball minds would agree the offense will run through Pierce the majority of the time, with KG down low and Allen hanging out in the wings. So what is the result of this? Well as for Pierce, you can probably expect somewhat of a point drop, but as he takes fewer shots and has less pressure on him, expect his FG% to go nowhere but up. Same goes for his assists and his turnovers should be down too. Nothing but positives here excluding the points. Much of the same applies for KG. He could very easily end this season as the top ranked player in all the land. Chances are he gets some burn at center, and could gain center eligibility in many leagues. Not only that, as he isn’t the only option in Boston, his turnovers will be down and his percentages up. This deal may not look like it helps him on the surface, but it does deep down. Ray Allen is a much bigger question. Things don’t look nearly as merry for him as the other two. He still may end up leading the league in threes, but he may not even be at 20 PPG. He probably gets the fewest looks out of the three, but who knows, he played alongside Rashard Lewis in Seattle for a long time pretty effectively. Still, draft him with caution in comparison to the other two.
Al Jefferson to Minnesota: As one-seventh of KG’s retribution, Al Jefferson comes in as the best piece acquired by the Wolves. He has been having probably the best preseason of anyone in the league, and is more than a safe bet for 20 PPG and 10 RPG with a couple blocks. The trade doesn’t affect him much at all, other than he may possibly get a few more looks in Minny without a big star there. Still, the guy was a stud either way. After last year’s breakout season, he’s a potential 13 rebound a game player, who shoots a respectable percentage from the line.
Rashard Lewis to Orlando: ‘Shard was a sign-and-trade, so he counts as a traded player. There is nobody in Orlando near the star caliber of Lewis, save Dwight Howard, who won’t have a negative effect on Lewis at all. Expect Lewis to be the go-to guy down there, and you know what that means: worse FG%, more turnovers, but more points and threes. Keep that in mind as you draft him this year. Over 2.5 threes a game is not out of the question, as is over 25 PPG, but less than 44% shooting. His rebounds are tough to forecast, so don’t expect them to change much from his career average, which is around six a game. Same goes for assists, with basically a Ray Allen for Dwight Howard trade-off.
Jason Richardson to Charlotte: What a great draft day deal for the Bobcats. They finally have a star, a big name guy to sell tickets. Last year, J-Rich’s numbers were down almost across the board, as he missed 31 games. Because of this, his value was already lower than usual, but what does this trade do? Well the offense of the Bobcats should be somewhat similar to the Warriors in that they don’t have a big guy that slows them down, and they can get out and run. They have a solid PG in Raymond Felton to feed him the ball on the break, and you can expect more dunks. It’s safe to venture that his percentages will be back up, at least closer to his career average, as long as he’s healthy. He should be back in the 20’s with his scoring figures in a less potent offense. Still, the main factor here is health, not the trade. Another guy you may want to draft with caution, as a high risk guy with pretty decent reward.
Zach Randolph to New York: Oh boy. I won’t even ask what Isiah is doing here. In any case, Fat Zach is a flawed player. A ton of turnovers, no blocks, it’s quite strange. The one thing this trade should do for certain is lower his turnover total back somewhere south of three a game. There are plenty of Knicks to fight for the ball, so he won’t get the 19 shot attempts a game he did last year, and won’t lose the ball as much as a result. He may not be 20-10 this year, but will still be close. At the point you can probably get him this year, he’s a decent pick. The fact that he plays next to Eddy Curry and in front David Lee is pretty scary as there could be lost touches and minutes on the court.
Mike James to Houston: Houston, we uh, have a strange point guard situation. Mike James was traded for Juwan Howard from Minnesota. Steve Francis was signed, but it was after he was traded to Portland from New York for Channing Frye. This is a bizarre situation. Here’s the list of guys the Rockets can play at the two guard positions: Francis, James, Rafer Alston, Aaron Brooks, John Lucas, Tracy McGrady, Luther Head, and Bob Sura. Now they won’t all make the team, but it still leaves an odd situation. One has to think at the very least, James, Francis, Alston, Head, and McGrady make the team. McGrady will play some SF, but the Rockets also have Shane Battier there. So if Rick Adelman decides he wants to go small ball, we could see any two of James, Francis, Alston, and Head start, with T-Mac at the three, or if he starts T-Mac at SG, things get crazy. James PROBABLY ends up starting at PG and splitting minutes with Alston. Then it depends on the SG position as to where Francis fits in. In a nutshell, T-Mac at SF is good for these two, but T-Mac at SG is very, very bad.
Channing Frye to Portland: Thank you, Greg Oden. His injury opens up a lot of playing time for Frye, if he stays in Portland. However, rumor has it they are trying to deal him, as he was a forced throw-in in the Zach Randolph deal to help alleviate the Knicks’ payroll. We’ll see, but as a Blazer, Frye has good value. He should see minutes, which is a good sign. Last December, Frye averaged 35 minutes per game, which netted him 15.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and over a block. That’s good value for the end of drafts and you should consider him somewhat of a sleeper.
Reggie Evans to Philadelphia: Why is this no-name included? He’s a stud, that’s why. In his career, he averages 7.2 rebounds in les than 20 minutes a game. I’m sure you’ll take that off the waiver wire. Evans probably starts, and if he plays 30 minutes a game, he’s a serious 10-12 rebound a night threat. Don’t look for points or blocks, but if you need a quick fix for some boards, here you go.
And here I go! Good luck to all this coming fantasy basketball season!
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